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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–6 on winners
spread MAE 10.8
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
@
UCLA
|
-5.8 | 140.4 | 30% | 61–73 | ✗ |
Ohio State
@
Michigan
|
-1.0 | 151.8 | 47% | 65–73 | ✗ |
Siena
@
Niagara
|
+15.6 | 141.4 | 92% | 93–88 | ✗ |
Fairfield
@
Canisius
|
+5.3 | 149.2 | 68% | 88–63 | ✗ |
Stonehill
@
Wagner
|
+9.6 | 127.4 | 81% | 54–64 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
George Washington
|
-2.2 | 152.7 | 42% | 62–75 | ✗ |
Pennsylvania
@
Cornell
|
+8.6 | 166.0 | 78% | 60–77 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Princeton
|
+26.1 | 131.7 | 99% | 58–76 | ✓ |
Brown
@
Harvard
|
+8.0 | 143.2 | 77% | 74–72 | ✗ |
Villanova
@
Marquette
|
+4.7 | 141.4 | 67% | 74–87 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Texas Southern
|
+18.6 | 121.4 | 95% | 61–93 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Northwestern State
|
+1.1 | 152.8 | 54% | 64–69 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+14.4 | 151.4 | 90% | 62–82 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
Central Connecticut
|
+2.6 | 129.7 | 59% | 70–75 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Minnesota
|
-0.2 | 160.9 | 49% | 86–77 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.