Betting Lines
| Spread | MINN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | MINN -175 IOWA +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +9 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -1.3 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -0.3 (-9.3) | 156.7 (+6.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -0.1 (-8.9) | 152.4 (+10.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -0.6 (-9.6) | 155.6 (+7.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -0.6 (-9.6) | 155.7 (+7.3) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | MINN 70 – 67 IOWA |
| Jan 22, 2025 | MINN 72 – 67 IOWA |
| Feb 11, 2024 | IOWA 90 – 85 MINN |
| Feb 12, 2023 | IOWA 68 – 56 MINN |
| Feb 6, 2022 | IOWA 71 – 59 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#85) | 11.7 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#91) | 1.31 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#90) | 1.85 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#135) | 0.553 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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