Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | MINN +190 IOWA -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -8.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -5.9 (+8.9) | 129.8 (+7.2) | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -6.5 (+9.5) | 130.5 (+6.5) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -6.1 (+9.1) | 130.5 (+6.5) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -6.8 (+9.8) | 131.3 (+5.7) | 19% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2025 | MINN 72 – 67 IOWA |
| Feb 11, 2024 | IOWA 90 – 85 MINN |
| Jan 15, 2024 | IOWA 86 – 77 MINN |
| Feb 12, 2023 | IOWA 68 – 56 MINN |
| Feb 6, 2022 | IOWA 71 – 59 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#104) | 17.9 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#92) | 3.01 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#90) | 4.22 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#137) | 0.608 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 52.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 60.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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