Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -700 LAS +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +20 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -14.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -10.8 (+9.2) | 151.4 (-7.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -11.6 (+8.4) | 148.6 (-4.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -13.0 (+7.0) | 149.6 (-5.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -13.1 (+6.9) | 151.6 (-7.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#71) | -2.6 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#137) | 0.03 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#103) | -0.14 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#142) | 0.488 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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