Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -275 VILL +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +13 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -5.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -5.6 (+7.4) | 137.6 (+23.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -5.4 (+7.6) | 138.3 (+22.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -5.6 (+7.4) | 139.8 (+21.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -5.4 (+7.6) | 139.8 (+21.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | VILL 77 – 74 MARQ |
| Jan 10, 2026 | VILL 76 – 73 MARQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VILL 81 – 66 MARQ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MARQ 87 – 74 VILL |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MARQ 71 – 65 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#20) | 12.6 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#31) | 1.74 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#27) | 2.30 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#24) | 0.601 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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