He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Atlantic 10 Conference · Charles E. Smith Center · January 15, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread GMU -2.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money GW +115 / GMU -150
Model Predictions
Spread Total GW win
Actual GW +13 137 Won
Massey GMU -1.0 (+14.0) — —
Massey Totals — 153.0 (-16.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 52% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 48% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ GMU -2.7 (+15.7) 145.8 (-8.8) 40% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML GMU -1.3 (+14.3) 147.5 (-10.5) 46% ✗
Baseline ML GMU -1.2 (+14.2) 147.2 (-10.2) 46% ✗
Baseline Plus ML GMU -1.8 (+14.8) 145.1 (-8.1) 45% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2026 GW 72 – 53 GMU
Jan 19, 2026 GMU 69 – 64 GW
Mar 14, 2025 GMU 80 – 65 GW
Feb 6, 2025 GMU 53 – 50 GW
Jan 18, 2025 GMU 80 – 77 GW

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GW GMU
Overall 15-17 20-12
Conference 4-14 9-9
Home 12-6 14-3
Away 1-9 5-7
Neutral 2-2 1-2
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 76.4 70.6
Avg Pts Against 77.4 66.1
Massey 1.0 (#151) 6.0 (#91)
Bradley-Terry 0.93 (#99) 1.56 (#67)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.94 (#118) 1.81 (#75)
RPI 0.519 (#146) 0.571 (#69)
Shooting & Four Factors GW GMU
FG% 46.9% 46.5%
3PT% 38.7% 36.2%
REB / G 39.7 37.6
OREB / G 8.9 10.4
AST / TO 0.95 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.5% 53.2%
TOV% 18.5% 17.4%
ORB% 25.9% 31.7%
FT Rate 27.4% 27.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.8% 46.2%
Opp TOV% 15.4% 15.0%
DRB% 68.8% 73.9%
Opp FT Rate 14.9% 22.4%

Game Analysis

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