Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | GW +115 GMU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -1.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -2.7 (+15.7) | 145.8 (-8.8) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -1.3 (+14.3) | 147.5 (-10.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -1.2 (+14.2) | 147.2 (-10.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -1.8 (+14.8) | 145.1 (-8.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | GW 72 – 53 GMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | GMU 69 – 64 GW |
| Mar 14, 2025 | GMU 80 – 65 GW |
| Feb 6, 2025 | GMU 53 – 50 GW |
| Jan 18, 2025 | GMU 80 – 77 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 1-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#151) | 6.0 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#99) | 1.56 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#118) | 1.81 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#146) | 0.571 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.