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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Notre Dame
@
Boston College
|
+10.6 | 137.8 | 83% | 59–63 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Stetson
|
+10.0 | 136.6 | 82% | 77–70 | ✗ |
American University
@
Loyola Maryland
|
-2.0 | 139.9 | 43% | 66–52 | ✓ |
Sacred Heart
@
Le Moyne
|
+1.7 | 144.8 | 56% | 80–73 | ✗ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Saint Francis
|
+1.3 | 148.7 | 55% | 81–71 | ✗ |
Columbia
@
Yale
|
+9.4 | 147.5 | 80% | 70–89 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
SE Louisiana
|
+1.2 | 132.4 | 55% | 73–68 | ✗ |
Alabama A&M
@
Alabama State
|
+7.3 | 140.3 | 75% | 55–72 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Nicholls
|
+11.7 | 157.6 | 86% | 75–78 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
-6.5 | 147.5 | 28% | 81–83 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
Florida A&M
|
+3.3 | 132.8 | 62% | 65–52 | ✗ |
Lamar
@
McNeese
|
+14.3 | 150.9 | 90% | 69–88 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Hampton
|
+0.8 | 158.8 | 53% | 81–80 | ✗ |
Florida
@
Tennessee
|
+11.2 | 161.9 | 84% | 66–85 | ✓ |
Samford
@
Western Carolina
|
+2.8 | 161.6 | 60% | 75–71 | ✗ |
Butler
@
Xavier
|
+6.6 | 151.8 | 73% | 71–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.