← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–12 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Purdue
@
Indiana
|
-13.1 | 151.8 | 12% | 87–66 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Cincinnati
|
+5.0 | 153.3 | 67% | 77–81 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Pittsburgh
|
+7.9 | 141.4 | 76% | 69–58 | ✗ |
Wake Forest
@
NC State
|
-0.1 | 152.0 | 50% | 76–83 | ✗ |
Missouri State
@
Indiana State
|
+16.3 | 151.9 | 93% | 66–88 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Alabama
|
+22.0 | 162.4 | 98% | 75–93 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
Duquesne
|
+2.0 | 138.2 | 57% | 63–61 | ✗ |
Central Michigan
@
Ohio
|
+11.1 | 149.9 | 84% | 61–73 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Miami (OH)
|
+2.5 | 144.5 | 59% | 78–73 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Akron
|
+15.0 | 144.4 | 91% | 66–77 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-0.8 | 139.6 | 47% | 76–62 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Toledo
|
+17.9 | 153.5 | 95% | 66–77 | ✓ |
Baylor
@
Kansas State
|
-5.4 | 148.9 | 31% | 64–68 | ✗ |
Saint Louis
@
Dayton
|
+19.1 | 148.8 | 96% | 65–70 | ✓ |
Temple
@
SMU
|
+20.0 | 138.4 | 97% | 64–77 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Rice
|
-4.5 | 134.7 | 34% | 81–79 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Northern Illinois
|
-0.2 | 159.2 | 49% | 83–76 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Seton Hall
|
-1.2 | 145.9 | 46% | 65–80 | ✗ |
Kansas
@
Oklahoma State
|
-5.4 | 140.3 | 31% | 90–66 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Penn State
|
-8.7 | 149.2 | 22% | 83–87 | ✗ |
Iowa State
@
BYU
|
+4.6 | 145.5 | 66% | 72–87 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Clemson
|
+14.4 | 149.9 | 90% | 93–90 | ✗ |
Georgia
@
South Carolina
|
+5.7 | 135.9 | 70% | 74–69 | ✗ |
Texas A&M
@
Arkansas
|
-4.0 | 149.1 | 36% | 77–78 | ✗ |
Air Force
@
Colorado State
|
+19.9 | 132.7 | 96% | 69–78 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Fresno State
|
-0.3 | 139.8 | 49% | 82–85 | ✗ |
UNLV
@
Boise State
|
+8.2 | 143.3 | 77% | 68–64 | ✗ |
Utah State
@
New Mexico
|
+3.4 | 155.4 | 62% | 86–99 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Army
|
-6.7 | 122.5 | 27% | 64–56 | ✓ |
Furman
@
VMI
|
-11.8 | 164.2 | 14% | 100–60 | ✓ |
Georgia State
@
App State
|
+12.1 | 140.6 | 86% | 68–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.