Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | BCU +155 SOU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +2 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -5.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -5.4 (+7.4) | 145.6 (+18.4) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -6.9 (+8.9) | 143.9 (+20.1) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -6.1 (+8.1) | 144.7 (+19.3) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -5.8 (+7.8) | 146.3 (+17.7) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BCU 82 – 79 SOU |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SOU 77 – 73 BCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BCU 70 – 69 SOU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | SOU 69 – 53 BCU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | BCU 73 – 58 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#334) | -2.1 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#324) | 0.73 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#318) | 0.56 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#327) | 0.534 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.1% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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