Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -250 BUT +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -5.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -6.7 (+7.3) | 151.0 (+5.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -5.9 (+8.1) | 146.6 (+9.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -5.8 (+8.2) | 147.9 (+8.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -6.3 (+7.7) | 149.1 (+6.9) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BUT 80 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BUT |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BUT |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BUT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BUT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | BUT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#39) | 10.0 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#94) | 1.58 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#62) | 2.17 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#73) | 0.568 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | BUT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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