The name is Big Daddy, yes big not little. "Ain't No Half Steppin'" - Big Daddy Kane
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–14 on winners spread MAE 10.0 57 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane -7.4 171.0 25% 85–84 ✓
William & Mary @ Hampton -1.2 158.5 46% 73–61 ✓
Stony Brook @ Towson +5.7 131.8 70% 64–73 ✓
Monmouth @ UNC Wilmington +6.3 146.1 72% 56–69 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern -2.4 144.0 42% 68–71 ✗
Elon @ Charleston +15.0 159.5 91% 62–80 ✓
Drexel @ North Carolina A&T -13.4 141.7 11% 67–63 ✓
Delaware @ Campbell -8.4 134.0 22% 68–62 ✓
Michigan @ Maryland +2.2 143.2 58% 57–64 ✓
VMI @ Chattanooga +13.8 146.4 90% 61–109 ✓
South Alabama @ James Madison +17.7 163.3 95% 55–89 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia State +8.9 150.2 79% 70–77 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina -9.5 148.8 19% 70–45 ✓
UMBC @ Vermont +18.2 157.3 95% 72–77 ✓
Binghamton @ Bryant +9.8 155.0 81% 69–77 ✓
New Mexico State @ Florida International +5.1 148.5 68% 67–77 ✓
Seattle U @ UT Rio Grande Valley -9.9 146.2 18% 80–81 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +9.6 156.6 81% 70–79 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City +3.3 148.6 62% 92–91 ✗
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +6.0 133.9 71% 81–80 ✗
North Dakota @ Omaha +8.5 140.3 78% 61–79 ✓
South Dakota @ Oral Roberts +12.0 159.4 86% 66–84 ✓
Utah Valley @ UT Arlington +2.7 139.8 60% 69–83 ✓
Western Illinois @ UT Martin +6.7 156.7 73% 73–64 ✗
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville +8.7 133.7 78% 64–67 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +2.6 142.6 59% 74–68 ✗
Morehead State @ Eastern Illinois -4.6 136.4 34% 78–52 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama State +3.9 144.3 64% 73–63 ✗
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe -1.7 136.9 44% 71–58 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +8.4 137.7 78% 82–85 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas -2.8 150.7 40% 86–63 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama +7.6 148.0 76% 53–69 ✓
Michigan State @ Illinois +6.5 146.0 72% 68–71 ✓
UCLA @ Utah +14.9 136.6 91% 44–90 ✓
Radford @ Longwood +8.9 135.7 79% 69–58 ✗
Alcorn State @ Alabama A&M +2.4 163.0 59% 74–71 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah Tech -3.7 147.8 37% 70–75 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Grand Canyon +17.9 153.7 95% 64–74 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee -10.1 123.1 18% 60–52 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis +3.5 145.0 62% 75–95 ✓
Weber State @ Sacramento State -11.2 134.8 15% 69–71 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +7.1 138.4 74% 50–79 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana +9.6 162.9 81% 98–92 ✗
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara -3.7 151.9 37% 76–77 ✗
San Francisco @ San Diego -9.4 140.6 20% 83–63 ✓
Pacific @ Pepperdine +17.2 142.7 94% 78–93 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +2.5 128.7 59% 63–77 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego +7.1 153.2 74% 74–88 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside +7.8 135.2 76% 56–71 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara +10.7 142.2 83% 64–66 ✓
Idaho State @ Portland State +9.0 139.7 79% 69–63 ✗
Arizona State @ Washington +10.4 150.5 83% 67–82 ✓
Stanford @ Oregon State -0.7 148.6 47% 88–84 ✓
Portland @ Saint Mary's +19.9 133.9 96% 52–95 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i -3.2 138.5 39% 60–50 ✓
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee +0.1 160.0 50% 80–88 ✓
Minnesota @ Indiana +0.6 145.7 52% 62–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.