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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–19 on winners
spread MAE 10.7
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas
@
UCF
|
-2.5 | 143.4 | 41% | 60–65 | ✗ |
Tennessee
@
Mississippi State
|
-2.1 | 135.7 | 42% | 72–77 | ✗ |
Clemson
@
Virginia Tech
|
-0.9 | 143.4 | 47% | 72–87 | ✗ |
Louisville
@
Miami
|
+21.0 | 159.4 | 97% | 80–71 | ✗ |
East Carolina
@
Temple
|
+4.8 | 144.1 | 67% | 73–62 | ✗ |
Tulsa
@
Charlotte
|
+8.7 | 131.2 | 79% | 76–84 | ✓ |
Winthrop
@
Presbyterian
|
-5.1 | 146.5 | 32% | 81–71 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
High Point
|
+9.7 | 158.8 | 81% | 79–84 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
Gardner-Webb
|
+15.6 | 139.8 | 92% | 86–74 | ✗ |
Lafayette
@
Colgate
|
+15.1 | 121.5 | 91% | 69–64 | ✗ |
Navy
@
Holy Cross
|
-5.9 | 133.1 | 29% | 80–70 | ✓ |
American University
@
Boston University
|
+3.6 | 135.0 | 63% | 68–72 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
Massachusetts
|
+14.1 | 161.0 | 90% | 65–81 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Saint Louis
|
-9.1 | 151.2 | 20% | 85–88 | ✗ |
Bucknell
@
Lehigh
|
+9.1 | 139.7 | 80% | 86–80 | ✗ |
Mercer
@
Wofford
|
+7.2 | 152.1 | 74% | 73–74 | ✓ |
Western Carolina
@
East Tennessee State
|
-0.6 | 139.4 | 48% | 80–66 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Furman
|
+4.7 | 148.8 | 67% | 68–82 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Robert Morris
|
-0.4 | 167.0 | 48% | 101–76 | ✓ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Oakland
|
+8.4 | 150.2 | 78% | 65–70 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Fairleigh Dickinson
|
+1.9 | 145.9 | 57% | 75–74 | ✗ |
Georgia Southern
@
Marshall
|
+14.0 | 151.0 | 90% | 74–79 | ✓ |
Florida Gulf Coast
@
Queens University
|
+5.2 | 149.9 | 68% | 75–78 | ✓ |
Stetson
@
Kennesaw State
|
+2.7 | 164.9 | 60% | 70–88 | ✓ |
Jacksonville State
@
Liberty
|
+9.1 | 125.5 | 80% | 61–51 | ✗ |
Illinois State
@
Belmont
|
+9.7 | 147.2 | 81% | 60–67 | ✓ |
Western Kentucky
@
Sam Houston
|
+0.5 | 151.7 | 52% | 74–78 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
NC State
|
-4.6 | 155.2 | 34% | 67–54 | ✓ |
UTSA
@
Memphis
|
+22.1 | 165.3 | 98% | 101–107 | ✓ |
Southern Illinois
@
Valparaiso
|
-10.9 | 131.1 | 16% | 77–68 | ✓ |
UIC
@
Northern Iowa
|
+6.1 | 138.8 | 71% | 59–67 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Missouri State
|
+6.4 | 144.1 | 72% | 77–53 | ✗ |
Indiana State
@
Drake
|
-2.6 | 158.9 | 41% | 78–89 | ✗ |
Evansville
@
Bradley
|
+8.8 | 145.7 | 79% | 50–86 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Xavier
|
-2.1 | 145.5 | 43% | 80–75 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Ohio State
|
+0.3 | 143.1 | 51% | 71–60 | ✗ |
Louisiana
@
Troy
|
+2.8 | 148.8 | 60% | 73–79 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
TCU
|
+2.0 | 150.9 | 57% | 71–80 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Marquette
|
+10.8 | 155.1 | 84% | 69–62 | ✗ |
Boston College
@
Syracuse
|
+3.7 | 156.8 | 63% | 59–69 | ✓ |
Arkansas
@
Georgia
|
+6.1 | 150.0 | 71% | 66–76 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Ole Miss
|
-1.5 | 160.0 | 44% | 85–103 | ✗ |
Washington State
@
USC
|
+2.5 | 148.2 | 59% | 72–64 | ✗ |
Colorado
@
California
|
-6.1 | 157.2 | 29% | 78–82 | ✗ |
New Hampshire
@
Maine
|
+1.5 | 141.2 | 55% | 79–74 | ✗ |
NJIT
@
UMass Lowell
|
+20.1 | 146.1 | 97% | 62–70 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.