Funky Claude was running in and out / pulling kids out the ground "Smoke On the Water" - Deep Purple
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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81–35 on winners spread MAE 10.3 118 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +10.7 131.6 86% 48–62 ✓
Long Island University @ Wagner -1.5 140.8 42% 74–76 ✗
Siena @ Rider -6.2 138.7 23% 78–69 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Milwaukee +7.8 149.2 81% 81–72 ✗
Youngstown State @ Oakland +0.6 157.5 54% 65–82 ✓
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +0.5 150.4 54% 61–86 ✓
Cleveland State @ Wright State +10.4 133.9 85% 66–64 ✗
Presbyterian @ Campbell +4.7 130.2 67% 51–73 ✓
Liberty @ Stetson -11.7 141.5 17% 59–65 ✗
Bellarmine @ Florida Gulf Coast +4.7 136.7 70% 74–60 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State -1.1 135.2 43% 72–74 ✗
App State @ South Alabama +2.8 143.6 62% 64–73 ✓
Louisiana @ UT Arlington +3.8 147.2 64% 86–91 ✓
Utah Tech @ UT Rio Grande Valley +6.7 143.5 78% 49–82 ✓
Bowling Green @ Buffalo +4.3 160.1 68% 76–69 ✗
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly -12.1 131.0 15% 86–51 ✓
Texas State @ Little Rock +5.7 140.9 71% 63–59 ✗
UTSA @ Louisiana Tech +11.7 147.2 87% 66–77 ✓
North Florida @ Lipscomb +5.9 141.5 72% 72–84 ✓
Robert Morris @ UIC +1.3 149.3 56% 53–67 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Southern Miss +3.4 123.9 60% 54–84 ✓
UTEP @ North Texas +3.4 136.9 65% 33–63 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara +10.2 142.9 86% 52–69 ✓
North Dakota State @ North Dakota -5.1 131.3 29% 62–45 ✓
Wisconsin @ Rutgers +0.1 139.4 53% 60–54 ✗
Utah Valley @ Seattle U +0.3 135.0 52% 93–92 ✗
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +2.3 145.1 59% 74–83 ✓
Fresno State @ Nevada +8.3 137.4 81% 57–73 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Hawai'i +7.5 145.3 78% 60–55 ✗
Ohio State @ Illinois +8.5 148.7 78% 87–81 ✗
Marquette @ St. John's +0.7 151.1 55% 73–71 ✗
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh +2.0 140.1 61% 76–96 ✓
North Carolina @ Florida State +5.7 143.8 74% 75–82 ✓
American University @ Navy — — — 86–87 —
Georgia @ Ole Miss +6.0 144.9 74% 78–74 ✗
Missouri @ Texas A&M -5.2 129.8 30% 68–52 ✓
Temple @ Tulane +1.4 131.9 56% 65–57 ✗
Holy Cross @ Colgate +21.4 151.5 90% 55–95 ✓
Army @ Boston University -0.7 140.7 43% 79–59 ✓
Hartford @ UMBC +5.0 134.3 72% 70–63 ✗
The Citadel @ VMI +1.9 159.8 57% 103–110 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ball State +13.8 138.2 88% 58–78 ✓
Northeastern @ Charleston -1.0 130.9 45% 67–62 ✓
William & Mary @ Drexel +6.8 133.2 76% 58–82 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana +10.0 130.2 84% 62–58 ✗
San Diego State @ Utah State +4.9 127.9 70% 59–64 ✓
Michigan @ Minnesota -2.7 147.4 35% 57–75 ✗
Creighton @ Butler -11.7 138.3 16% 66–70 ✗
Davidson @ La Salle -3.3 135.0 37% 77–53 ✓
James Madison @ Towson -1.4 146.3 44% 81–72 ✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State +16.2 150.5 89% 72–92 ✓
George Mason @ Rhode Island +9.3 140.3 82% 60–80 ✓
Lehigh @ Bucknell +1.0 140.6 49% 70–75 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Denver -12.3 154.9 14% 91–82 ✓
Kentucky @ Auburn +3.5 143.7 68% 59–66 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State +6.2 152.8 72% 68–71 ✓
New Hampshire @ Stony Brook +4.0 135.4 71% 81–64 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -3.9 136.5 34% 92–78 ✓
Old Dominion @ Rice +3.1 141.8 66% 61–58 ✗
Wofford @ Chattanooga +1.8 145.4 63% 77–59 ✗
Western Carolina @ Mercer +6.9 159.6 77% 76–78 ✓
Kent State @ Ohio +1.8 155.0 60% 89–79 ✗
Toledo @ Akron -6.0 144.8 28% 94–95 ✗
Portland State @ Montana State +8.3 141.8 81% 64–69 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford -0.1 144.0 51% 82–70 ✓
Stanford @ Colorado +10.6 138.8 85% 64–77 ✓
Youngstown State @ Oakland +0.6 156.3 54% 74–81 ✓
Troy @ Georgia Southern +3.3 131.4 64% 56–63 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +11.5 129.7 85% 30–65 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho -6.6 135.6 23% 75–61 ✓
Southern Utah @ Eastern Washington +6.7 149.1 77% 99–94 ✗
Arkansas @ Alabama +3.7 157.9 67% 59–90 ✓
Baylor @ Texas Tech -0.9 144.4 39% 68–60 ✓
Valparaiso @ DePaul +5.8 144.9 72% 58–77 ✓
Indiana State @ Illinois State -4.3 139.8 34% 73–65 ✓
Evansville @ Bradley +8.9 130.2 83% 60–69 ✓
Wyoming @ Air Force +0.5 142.4 54% 69–72 ✓
Niagara @ Manhattan -2.3 127.6 40% 55–58 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Abilene Christian +14.7 131.5 89% 42–76 ✓
Boston College @ Notre Dame +2.2 148.8 62% 70–80 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette — — — 75–77 —
Florida @ Mississippi State +0.3 145.5 52% 69–72 ✓
North Alabama @ Kennesaw State -1.2 127.7 40% 66–64 ✓
UAB @ Charlotte -5.8 127.2 22% 55–70 ✗
UTEP @ North Texas +4.0 134.3 67% 65–74 ✓
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic +1.0 145.3 53% 63–107 ✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M +16.1 145.5 90% 63–70 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Furman +13.0 144.1 87% 66–78 ✓
Houston Christian @ Sam Houston +13.6 153.4 88% 80–87 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan +5.1 151.9 72% 64–75 ✓
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State -0.6 134.8 44% 64–50 ✓
Norfolk State @ Delaware State -11.2 146.4 15% 87–76 ✓
Washington @ UCLA +16.0 149.2 90% 76–81 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Monmouth +9.7 147.0 86% 63–70 ✓
Fairfield @ Marist +8.3 133.7 81% 55–52 ✗
Murray State @ UT Martin -5.1 143.8 28% 79–57 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Eastern Illinois -4.1 153.3 32% 93–85 ✓
Belmont @ Jacksonville State -0.9 136.1 46% 98–91 ✓
Liberty @ Stetson -10.7 138.9 17% 68–58 ✓
Nicholls @ Central Arkansas -2.9 152.8 36% 74–72 ✓
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State -0.1 136.7 43% 72–93 ✗
Texas State @ Little Rock +6.0 140.1 72% 67–56 ✗
App State @ South Alabama +2.8 142.5 63% 83–77 ✗
Louisiana @ UT Arlington +3.8 148.2 66% 68–51 ✗
NJIT @ UAlbany +1.2 133.3 56% 75–83 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Southern Miss +3.5 125.4 59% 59–64 ✓
New Mexico @ UNLV +8.4 140.3 84% 54–77 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern +8.9 145.1 83% 53–88 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +19.4 138.3 91% 61–81 ✓
Virginia @ Clemson +3.9 126.8 71% 85–50 ✗
North Florida @ Lipscomb +6.1 141.2 73% 72–67 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago +12.9 141.9 88% 57–72 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State -14.9 150.1 14% 88–61 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +3.5 135.0 66% 65–63 ✗
Robert Morris @ UIC +1.2 147.0 56% 62–66 ✓
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +1.1 151.3 56% 65–68 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific +3.1 132.7 67% 49–58 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alcorn State +15.4 152.9 90% 59–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.