Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -600 UNI +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +15 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -12.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -10.4 (+4.6) | 137.2 (-8.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -12.9 (+2.1) | 141.9 (-12.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -12.0 (+3.0) | 142.1 (-13.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -11.9 (+3.1) | 141.4 (-12.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2025 | UNI 72 – 51 LUC |
| Mar 5, 2022 | LUC 66 – 43 UNI |
| Feb 26, 2022 | UNI 102 – 96 LUC |
| Feb 13, 2022 | LUC 85 – 58 UNI |
| Jan 17, 2021 | LUC 88 – 46 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-5 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-0 | 6-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#60) | -0.5 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#111) | -0.67 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#102) | -0.54 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#119) | 0.496 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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