Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | DEP -500 VAL +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +19 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | DEP -6.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -5.3 (+13.7) | 148.0 (-13.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -6.8 (+12.2) | 145.8 (-10.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -5.8 (+13.2) | 144.9 (-9.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -6.1 (+12.9) | 143.7 (-8.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2024 | DEP 89 – 70 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-14 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 2-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 2-8 | 6-6 |
| Away | 2-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#149) | -2.8 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#237) | -2.03 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#211) | -2.19 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#277) | 0.390 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 13.5% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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