Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | DEP -1400 VAL +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +19 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | DEP -21.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -19.6 (-0.6) | 148.2 (+10.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -19.4 (-0.4) | 149.3 (+9.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -18.1 (+0.9) | 149.3 (+9.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -15.3 (+3.7) | 151.1 (+7.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2021 | DEP 77 – 58 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-8 | 10-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#53) | -5.7 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#80) | -0.76 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#101) | -1.48 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#189) | 0.416 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.7% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 38.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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