Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SJU +140 MARQ -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -1.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -0.7 (-2.7) | 151.1 (-7.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -0.3 (-1.7) | 147.4 (-3.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -0.6 (-2.6) | 150.6 (-6.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -0.9 (-2.9) | 151.7 (-7.7) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SJU 76 – 70 MARQ |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SJU 92 – 68 MARQ |
| Mar 14, 2025 | SJU 79 – 63 MARQ |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJU 86 – 84 MARQ |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 64 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-11 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 10-9 | 8-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#108) | 8.1 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#105) | 1.83 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#97) | 2.63 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#138) | 0.571 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.