Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | AKR +163 TOL -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +1 | 189 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -7.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+43.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -6.0 (+7.0) | 144.8 (+44.2) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -5.6 (+6.6) | 142.5 (+46.5) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -6.6 (+7.6) | 146.1 (+42.9) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -6.0 (+7.0) | 147.3 (+41.7) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | AKR 79 – 76 TOL |
| Jan 28, 2026 | AKR 91 – 81 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AKR 100 – 90 TOL |
| Mar 5, 2025 | AKR 96 – 87 TOL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AKR 85 – 78 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-4 |
| Home | 9-1 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#173) | 9.1 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#248) | 1.82 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#219) | 2.62 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#269) | 0.580 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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