Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | SAM +300 UNCG -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +12 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -1.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -0.1 (-11.9) | 144.0 (+8.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -1.0 (-11.0) | 144.3 (+7.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -0.7 (-11.3) | 147.3 (+4.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -0.4 (-11.6) | 144.5 (+7.5) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SAM 87 – 78 UNCG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNCG 89 – 82 SAM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNCG 108 – 100 SAM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SAM 76 – 69 UNCG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SAM 78 – 69 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-13 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 2-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 4-5 | 7-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#197) | 1.8 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#199) | 0.30 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#182) | 0.56 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#168) | 0.516 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 41.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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