Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | DREX -300 W&M +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +24 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -8.9 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -6.8 (+17.2) | 133.2 (+6.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -7.5 (+16.5) | 130.6 (+9.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -6.9 (+17.1) | 132.3 (+7.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -6.2 (+17.8) | 133.8 (+6.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | DREX 64 – 58 W&M |
| Feb 15, 2025 | W&M 72 – 59 DREX |
| Feb 7, 2025 | DREX 86 – 66 W&M |
| Jan 6, 2024 | DREX 77 – 55 W&M |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DREX 66 – 56 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-8 | 7-10 |
| Conference | 4-5 | 4-6 |
| Home | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Away | 4-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#162) | -6.4 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#209) | -0.87 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#210) | -1.64 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#230) | 0.462 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 80.9% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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