Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | UVM -2500 ME +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +35 | 95 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -12.5 (+22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -11.5 (+23.5) | 129.7 (-34.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -11.1 (+23.9) | 124.0 (-29.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -11.6 (+23.4) | 127.1 (-32.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -11.3 (+23.7) | 130.2 (-35.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ME 76 – 70 UVM |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UVM 67 – 62 ME |
| Mar 11, 2025 | ME 57 – 42 UVM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVM 65 – 61 ME |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UVM 55 – 49 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-5 | 2-7 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 2-6 |
| Home | 6-3 | 1-1 |
| Away | 4-2 | 1-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 53.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#114) | -6.1 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#250) | -1.34 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#194) | -1.70 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#310) | 0.401 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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