Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | ILST +200 INST -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -6.9 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -4.3 (-3.7) | 139.8 (-1.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -5.1 (-2.9) | 135.8 (+2.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -5.5 (-2.5) | 139.0 (-1.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -5.1 (-2.9) | 140.3 (-2.3) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | INST 94 – 89 ILST |
| Dec 21, 2025 | ILST 85 – 65 INST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | INST 85 – 76 ILST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ILST 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILST 80 – 67 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-18 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 3-8 | 9-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#285) | 2.1 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#235) | 0.01 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#229) | 0.35 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#251) | 0.510 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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