Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -175 UNC +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -4.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -5.7 (+1.3) | 143.8 (+13.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -3.4 (+3.6) | 142.4 (+14.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -4.7 (+2.3) | 145.8 (+11.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -5.1 (+1.9) | 145.0 (+12.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | UNC 79 – 66 FSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | UNC 96 – 85 FSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UNC 92 – 67 FSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 68 FSU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UNC 78 – 70 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 10-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#33) | 10.0 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#53) | 1.80 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#56) | 2.53 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#57) | 0.588 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 45.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 16.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 42.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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