Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN -1600 MVSU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +12 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -21.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.3 (-36.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -15.4 (-3.4) | 152.9 (-22.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -15.9 (-3.9) | 145.8 (-15.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -16.3 (-4.3) | 150.6 (-20.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -16.4 (-4.4) | 156.0 (-26.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | ALCN 67 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 10, 2026 | ALCN 74 – 66 MVSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALCN 72 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALCN 86 – 39 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 67 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-13 | 2-22 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 2-13 |
| Home | 4-3 | 1-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 56.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 87.4 |
| Massey | -17.2 (#339) | -35.6 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#331) | -4.45 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.26 (#331) | -7.42 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#238) | 0.337 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 32.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 28.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.42 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.4% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 16.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 8.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 63.6% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 59.4% | 59.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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