Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -250 PRST +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -10.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -8.3 (-3.3) | 141.8 (-8.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -7.6 (-2.6) | 140.3 (-7.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -9.3 (-4.3) | 142.7 (-9.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -8.2 (-3.2) | 140.1 (-7.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTST 84 – 69 PRST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PRST 63 – 54 MTST |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PRST 69 – 52 MTST |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MTST 74 – 73 PRST |
| Feb 23, 2024 | MTST 72 – 67 PRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-10 | 9-13 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 6-8 |
| Home | 5-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#181) | -8.4 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#156) | -1.84 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#171) | -2.93 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#139) | 0.371 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 36.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 35.7% |
Game Analysis
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