Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | MER -225 WCU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +2 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MER -8.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -6.9 (-4.9) | 159.6 (-5.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -5.9 (-3.9) | 154.5 (-0.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -6.2 (-4.2) | 158.3 (-4.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -6.1 (-4.1) | 159.2 (-5.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | WCU 77 – 73 MER |
| Feb 26, 2026 | WCU 78 – 74 MER |
| Jan 22, 2026 | MER 88 – 76 WCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MER 67 – 66 WCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MER 81 – 69 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 4-13 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#105) | -1.4 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#99) | 0.59 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#92) | 1.00 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#91) | 0.539 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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