Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 115.5 Over |
| Money | CLEM +110 UVA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +35 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | CLEM -3.4 (-38.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.5 (+20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLEM -3.9 (-38.9) | 126.8 (+8.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLEM -1.7 (-36.7) | 123.4 (+11.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -1.0 (-34.0) | 128.6 (+6.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLEM -2.6 (-37.6) | 127.5 (+7.5) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLEM 71 – 58 UVA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UVA 66 – 65 CLEM |
| Mar 11, 2023 | UVA 76 – 56 CLEM |
| Mar 1, 2023 | UVA 64 – 57 CLEM |
| Jan 5, 2022 | UVA 75 – 65 CLEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLEM | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-8 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 13-4 |
| Home | 11-1 | 10-1 |
| Away | 2-5 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 58.2 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#23) | 12.9 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.63 (#6) | 1.56 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.90 (#8) | 2.77 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.679 (#4) | 0.561 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLEM | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.2% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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