Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -138 ULM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ULM -0.4 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -1.1 (+3.1) | 135.2 (+10.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -1.4 (+0.6) | 137.9 (+8.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -0.4 (+2.4) | 139.4 (+6.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -1.1 (+3.1) | 136.5 (+9.5) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
Game Analysis
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