Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -800 UCSD +560 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +17 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -11.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -10.2 (+6.8) | 142.9 (-21.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -12.3 (+4.7) | 140.4 (-19.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -13.2 (+3.8) | 141.6 (-20.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCSD 64 – 63 UCSB |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCSB 62 – 48 UCSD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UCSD 69 – 51 UCSB |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCSD 77 – 63 UCSB |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCSD 84 – 76 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-5 | 7-10 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 0-0 |
| Home | 11-0 | 7-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 0-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#144) | -7.5 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#132) | -1.72 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#138) | -2.78 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#130) | 0.353 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 18.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 8.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 34.0% |
Game Analysis
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