Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -188 BGSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +7 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -4.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -4.3 (-11.3) | 160.1 (-15.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -4.1 (-11.1) | 155.6 (-10.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -4.1 (-11.1) | 159.8 (-14.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -3.9 (-10.9) | 158.9 (-13.9) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | BUF 89 – 78 BGSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BGSU 63 – 59 BUF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BGSU 79 – 61 BUF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BGSU 87 – 73 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2023 | BUF 100 – 71 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 14-12 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-3 | 4-7 |
| Away | 5-3 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#68) | 5.8 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#140) | 0.94 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#140) | 0.65 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#104) | 0.564 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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