Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | SBU -333 DUQ +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +14 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -11.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -10.7 (+3.3) | 131.6 (-21.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -9.6 (+4.4) | 128.2 (-18.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -10.2 (+3.8) | 131.8 (-21.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -10.7 (+3.3) | 132.1 (-22.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | DUQ 78 – 73 SBU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SBU 87 – 79 DUQ |
| Mar 13, 2025 | SBU 64 – 59 DUQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SBU 70 – 63 DUQ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DUQ 75 – 57 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 9-9 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Home | 8-1 | 5-1 |
| Away | 3-3 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#73) | -1.7 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#52) | -0.69 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#58) | -0.35 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#61) | 0.478 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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