Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -110 FLA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -3.1 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -0.3 (+2.7) | 145.5 (-4.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -0.4 (+2.6) | 138.3 (+2.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -0.1 (+2.9) | 143.3 (-2.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -0.3 (+3.3) | 145.3 (-4.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FLA 108 – 74 MSST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | FLA 81 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 25, 2024 | FLA 79 – 70 MSST |
| Mar 9, 2023 | MSST 69 – 68 FLA |
| Jan 22, 2023 | FLA 61 – 59 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-5 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#93) | 11.2 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#114) | 1.59 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#78) | 2.04 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#137) | 0.592 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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