Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | WAG +130 LIU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -2.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -1.5 (+3.5) | 140.8 (+9.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIU -0.4 (+2.4) | 142.3 (+7.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -1.2 (+3.2) | 145.4 (+4.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -1.9 (+3.9) | 142.3 (+7.7) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | LIU 64 – 56 WAG |
| Feb 17, 2026 | LIU 83 – 65 WAG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | LIU 67 – 57 WAG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | LIU 60 – 47 WAG |
| Feb 7, 2025 | LIU 60 – 47 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 9-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#217) | 2.4 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#245) | 1.22 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#188) | 1.37 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#222) | 0.524 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 26.3% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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