Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | URI -200 GMU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +20 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | URI -10.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -9.3 (+10.7) | 140.3 (-0.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -6.7 (+13.3) | 141.1 (-1.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -8.8 (+11.2) | 141.8 (-1.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | URI -9.5 (+10.5) | 141.0 (-1.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | URI 74 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GMU 61 – 50 URI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GMU 82 – 67 URI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | URI 62 – 59 GMU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GMU 69 – 51 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 8-6 |
| Home | 6-3 | 7-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#67) | 0.3 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#103) | 0.14 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#80) | -0.11 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#98) | 0.515 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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