Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | GASO -225 TROY +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +7 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | GASO -4.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -3.3 (+3.7) | 131.4 (-12.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GASO -3.7 (+3.3) | 129.6 (-10.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -4.2 (+2.8) | 131.9 (-12.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -3.9 (+3.1) | 132.2 (-13.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | TROY 77 – 61 GASO |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TROY 83 – 78 GASO |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TROY 81 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TROY 84 – 63 GASO |
| Feb 5, 2022 | TROY 61 – 52 GASO |
Game Analysis
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