Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | USU -163 SDSU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +5 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | USU -4.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -4.9 (+0.1) | 127.9 (-4.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -3.8 (+1.2) | 125.6 (-2.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -4.3 (+0.7) | 129.2 (-6.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -4.7 (+0.3) | 127.5 (-4.5) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-9 | 23-5 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 14-3 |
| Home | 10-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#34) | 10.1 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#69) | 2.15 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#84) | 2.69 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#80) | 0.633 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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