Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | MONT -1000 NAU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +4 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -14.5 (-18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -10.0 (-14.0) | 130.2 (-10.2) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -9.1 (-13.1) | 128.5 (-8.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -9.0 (-13.0) | 128.8 (-8.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -10.0 (-14.0) | 131.0 (-11.0) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MONT 98 – 72 NAU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | MONT 78 – 64 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MONT 74 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | MONT 83 – 80 NAU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MONT 81 – 76 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 4-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 1-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#160) | -11.8 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#266) | -2.75 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#239) | -3.97 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#210) | 0.411 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 60.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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