Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | LR -150 TXST +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +11 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | LR -7.4 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -6.0 (-17.0) | 140.1 (-17.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -5.5 (-16.5) | 134.4 (-11.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -4.9 (-15.9) | 138.5 (-15.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -5.4 (-16.4) | 139.5 (-16.5) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | TXST 65 – 56 LR |
| Nov 7, 2023 | LR 71 – 66 TXST |
| Feb 19, 2022 | TXST 68 – 50 LR |
| Jan 21, 2022 | TXST 69 – 59 LR |
| Feb 6, 2021 | TXST 77 – 67 LR |
Game Analysis
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