Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | USA -138 APP +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | USA -3.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -2.8 (+6.2) | 143.6 (-6.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -2.4 (+6.6) | 138.7 (-1.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -2.9 (+6.1) | 139.7 (-2.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -2.7 (+6.3) | 143.6 (-6.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | APP 65 – 57 USA |
| Jan 5, 2024 | APP 91 – 84 USA |
| Mar 2, 2023 | USA 68 – 61 APP |
| Feb 11, 2023 | USA 74 – 57 APP |
| Feb 19, 2022 | APP 69 – 51 USA |
Game Analysis
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