Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | COFC +125 NE -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +5 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | NE -2.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -1.0 (-4.0) | 130.9 (-1.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -1.9 (-3.1) | 128.1 (+0.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -1.4 (-3.6) | 131.9 (-2.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NE -1.6 (-3.4) | 131.8 (-2.8) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | COFC 89 – 84 NE |
| Feb 21, 2025 | COFC 73 – 62 NE |
| Jan 18, 2025 | COFC 87 – 85 NE |
| Feb 16, 2024 | COFC 77 – 73 NE |
| Feb 14, 2023 | COFC 99 – 63 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-10 | 10-9 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 8-2 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-1 |
| Away | 1-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#231) | 1.2 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#207) | 0.57 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#209) | 0.59 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#204) | 0.584 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 18.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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