Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | ACU -1800 SELA +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +34 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -20.4 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -14.7 (+19.3) | 131.5 (-13.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -15.4 (+18.6) | 133.1 (-15.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -16.4 (+17.6) | 135.5 (-17.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -15.8 (+18.2) | 132.1 (-14.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-5 | 8-18 |
| Conference | 13-2 | 5-10 |
| Home | 13-0 | 3-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#81) | -11.1 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#76) | -1.88 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#68) | -2.96 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#116) | 0.425 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.4% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.7% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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