Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ND -175 BC +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +10 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | ND -2.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -2.2 (+7.8) | 148.8 (+1.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -2.0 (+8.0) | 148.3 (+1.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -2.5 (+7.5) | 147.8 (+2.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -2.1 (+7.9) | 150.2 (-0.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BC 77 – 69 ND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ND 68 – 64 BC |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ND 97 – 94 BC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ND 78 – 60 BC |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BC 61 – 58 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-15 | 4-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 2-11 |
| Home | 6-5 | 3-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 0-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#137) | 2.2 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#192) | -0.11 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#191) | 0.40 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#214) | 0.493 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 20.8% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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