Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | USM -138 MTSU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +5 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | USM -3.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -4.9 (+0.1) | 126.9 (-3.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -3.5 (+1.5) | 125.4 (-2.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -3.6 (+1.4) | 127.3 (-4.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -4.6 (+0.4) | 129.2 (-6.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2022 | MTSU 74 – 60 USM |
| Jan 16, 2021 | USM 84 – 54 MTSU |
Game Analysis
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