Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -138 ARK +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +31 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -0.4 (+30.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -3.7 (+27.3) | 157.9 (-8.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -1.8 (+29.2) | 158.8 (-9.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -2.9 (+28.1) | 159.2 (-10.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -3.4 (+27.6) | 157.8 (-8.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ALA 117 – 115 ARK |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ALA 85 – 81 ARK |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALA 92 – 88 ARK |
| Feb 25, 2023 | ALA 86 – 83 ARK |
| Jan 12, 2023 | ALA 84 – 69 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 13-4 |
| Home | 12-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#21) | 16.5 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#32) | 1.99 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#30) | 2.83 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#12) | 0.574 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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