Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV -600 UNM +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +23 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -12.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -8.4 (+14.6) | 140.3 (-9.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -8.1 (+14.9) | 136.7 (-5.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -7.9 (+15.1) | 138.8 (-7.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -8.0 (+15.0) | 140.2 (-9.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UNM 89 – 61 UNLV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UNM 81 – 67 UNLV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNM 75 – 73 UNLV |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UNLV 80 – 77 UNM |
| Jan 10, 2024 | UNLV 83 – 73 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-15 |
| Home | 8-4 | 1-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#164) | -9.6 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#223) | -0.33 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#216) | -0.69 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#191) | 0.526 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 39.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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