Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | MAN +120 NIA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +3 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -4.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -2.3 (+5.3) | 127.6 (-14.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -1.3 (+4.3) | 128.8 (-15.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -3.3 (+6.3) | 129.9 (-16.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -2.4 (+5.4) | 128.2 (-15.2) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MAN 76 – 69 NIA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MAN 79 – 70 NIA |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MAN 85 – 70 NIA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MAN 72 – 65 NIA |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MAN 84 – 78 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 4-6 | 5-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#311) | -3.7 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#271) | -0.92 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#284) | -1.25 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#309) | 0.442 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.9% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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