Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ARST +100 ULM +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +21 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | ULM -0.4 (+21.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+31.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -0.1 (+21.1) | 136.7 (+28.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -1.4 (+19.6) | 138.5 (+26.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -0.1 (+21.1) | 140.8 (+24.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -0.5 (+21.5) | 138.5 (+26.5) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
Game Analysis
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