Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -600 NIU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +20 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -17.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -13.8 (+6.2) | 138.2 (-2.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -12.0 (+8.0) | 138.2 (-2.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -13.5 (+6.5) | 138.9 (-2.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -14.2 (+5.8) | 137.5 (-1.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BALL 79 – 43 NIU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BALL 58 – 53 NIU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BALL 89 – 83 NIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NIU 76 – 66 BALL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BALL 70 – 63 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-13 | 3-16 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 2-12 |
| Home | 7-4 | 2-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#152) | -13.8 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#184) | -2.36 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#172) | -3.42 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#153) | 0.395 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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