Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -275 OSU +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +6 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -9.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -8.5 (-14.5) | 148.7 (+19.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.7 (-11.7) | 142.8 (+25.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -8.8 (-14.8) | 146.5 (+21.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -8.3 (-14.3) | 147.9 (+20.1) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 OSU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ILL 87 – 79 OSU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | ILL 77 – 74 OSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILL 87 – 75 OSU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | OSU 72 – 60 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 19.9 (#5) | 13.3 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#30) | 2.83 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.51 (#13) | 4.26 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#37) | 0.627 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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