Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -138 UK +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +7 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -3.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -3.5 (+3.5) | 143.7 (-18.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -3.2 (+3.8) | 144.6 (-19.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -2.4 (+4.6) | 144.1 (-19.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -3.3 (+3.7) | 144.2 (-19.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AUB 75 – 74 UK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | AUB 94 – 78 UK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UK 70 – 59 AUB |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UK 86 – 54 AUB |
| Jan 22, 2022 | AUB 80 – 71 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#79) | 5.7 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#98) | 0.53 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#88) | 1.51 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#118) | 0.541 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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